Business

CAPEX, profit scenarios, roadmap, and gates.

Historical planning scenarios, reviewed 11 November 2026. July prices and modeled 12–16-player throughput are assumptions, not validated radio capacity. The separate-floor architecture has not been repriced. Both demand and reliable tracker capacity must be validated before using these returns.

Profit scenarios

Demand-led monthly P&L (a ~600-student community + walk-ins + events). CZK. A match is 20 min play + 10 min turnaround; a ticket is one player in one match, so a full match sells 12–16 tickets. All figures below are per ticket.

Three fixed scenarios. Marginal cost 15/12/10 CZK per ticket (pess./base/opt.); capex ~324k CZK (no DMX).

Driver	Pess.	Base	Opt.
Players / match	12	14	16
Tickets / mo	400	850	1,500
Price / ticket	200	250	320
Gross / mo (k)	80	212.5	480
Monthly opex (k)	95	90	85
Profit / mo (k)	−21	+112	+380
Payback (capex ~324k)	none	2.9 mo	0.9 mo

Capex ~324k (street prices Jul 2026, no DMX) = lighting ~99k + audio ~75k + tracking ~89k (wand fleet + anchors + network) + gateway PC / charger bank / hazer / props ~21k + obstacle build ~25k + install ~15k. That is the exact sum of the rows — there is no contingency inside it, and obstacle build and install labour are still estimates without a quote.

Profit as ticket volume grows, one line per price point. Hollow rings on the zero line = break-even (514 tickets at 200 CZK, 379 at 250 CZK, 275 at 320 CZK); filled dots = the demand each scenario assumes. Slope = contribution per ticket (price − marginal cost), so a higher price tilts the line up and pulls break-even left. The dashed line is the ~1,250-ticket capacity ceiling at 12 players and 12 h/wk.

Make-or-break: ~514 tickets/month covers 95k opex at the pessimistic price (200 CZK, 15 CZK marginal) — about 17 tickets/day, i.e. ~1.4 full 12-player matches. That is the demand threshold under the stated costs; tracker capacity is a separate unvalidated constraint. At 12 h/wk of opening hours the arena runs ~104 matches/mo, which is ~1,250 tickets at 12 players and ~1,660 at 16: pessimistic and base fit the modeled opening-hours arithmetic, while the optimistic 1,500 needs 16-player matches or longer hours.

Demand figures are internal scenarios, deliberately not anchored to public "FEC retention statistics" (aggregator numbers are unreliable — methodology-free content farms). The ~600-student community behaves like a club (higher visit frequency, lower price per ticket), not a family FEC trip. Validation path: primary research — operator calls and pilot sessions — not web statistics.

Roadmap — evidence before capacity claims

Workstream	Current state	Next evidence
Real ranging	measured prototype SS-TWR, channel 9, multi-poll, two wands/five anchors recorded	Latest rollout and moving/static tests exist; separate radio/source timing from arrival gaps, geometry and aim error
Moving reliability	open Walking tests exist; occlusion, turns and recovery still need acceptance	Known paths, raw ranges, p95 error, jumps and update gaps
Current TDMA/CSMA	implemented 200 ms / 8 × 25 ms starts / 1 s Wi-Fi refs; CSMA A/B tested with two wands	1/2/4/8/12/16 physical wands; no validated 16-wand ≥8 Hz ceiling
TDoA migration	future Anchor/radio data path redesign	Anchor-to-anchor sync, timestamp backhaul, blink scheduling and gateway time-difference solver; compare against TWR
Venue network	installation dependent Device administration exists; PoE currently supplies power	AP/VLAN/backbone commissioning, connectivity and load tests; actual Ethernet interface if selected
Sparse optical yaw correction	future Passive retroreflectors + camera-side illumination	Optical bench gates and moving integration; not a substitute for UWB capacity testing
Arena effects and pilots	separate hardware work Smart obstacle and floor have separate supplies	Commission both devices, measure effect latency and complete operational playtests

12–16 players is the product target. No new completion dates or validated capacity are implied. The current prototype is camera-free; optical is future work. Canonical plan: docs/UWB_TDMA_PLAN.md.